This weekend it has been tough sledding thus far looking for good news on the economy home front. I was even spending some time looking for some “god news” from China with an RRR cut or a glimmer of hope. Unfortunately this weekend the news is all about the Euro zone and at this point I am not sure if it going to subside before the Greek elections. A good news article may be about the “pro bailout” party in Greece is leading in the poles.
Also, this week we do have the monthly Non Farm Payrolls which is always the marquee event for traders, but even the jobs news maybe overshadowed by the news surrounding Europe. One of the problems for analysts and economists this week is that both of the ISM numbers come out after the NFP, which in turn makes it a little more difficult for economists to predict the number for Friday without the guidance (in particular the jobs component) of the ISM.
In Europe there are plans being drawn up for a Greek exit. Here is one in the Telegraph with German plans, and here is one in Reuters about the Swiss emergency Euro plan. The silver lining here is that contingency plans are being made. My opinion….traders and the market hate uncertainty, and until some final decision is made on Greece and the rest of the Euro zone periphery, the downside pressure will persist in the markets.
Here are some very “harsh words” to Greece from IMF’s chief, Christine Lagarde.
This week in the U.S. we are observing the Memorial Day holiday Monday, and around the globe there is no major news happening all day. The economic data kicks off on Tuesday with CB Consumer Confidence in the US, and later that evening in AUD is Retail Sales. Wednesday we have Pending Home Sales in the US, and in NZD we have Business Confidence, and AUD Building Approvals and Cap Ex (Private Capital Expenditures). Thursday things pick up with US ADP Non-Farm, US Preliminary GDP and Unemployment Claims. Later that evening in China is Manufacturing PMI. Friday early we have CHF Retails Sales, GBP Manufacturing PMI, CAD GDP and then the monthly US NFP followed by Manufacturing ISM.
There are a couple companies posting earnings this week. Wednesday is LGF and Thursday CIEN, SAI and JOY.
Lastly, most of you know that my team and I broadcast daily from 6AM ET through the NY stock market close. To access our live webinars daily (which are free, and our live in the market analysis has been for nearly 9 years now) just click on this link. Our Wizetrade team will not be broadcasting over Memorial Day, so make sure you follow me on Twitter or Stocktwits @pipczar for my thoughts as the FX market opens this evening and tomorrow.
Here are some charts which I think will matter for the markets this week:
Weekly “Cup and Handle” formation suggests 90.00 in the coming months
EUR/USD weekly sitting on some major support
USD/JPY requires a daily close above 80.00 to turn bullish
Gold holding the 1525 level very well, but sitting below major multi year trend line
Disclaimer: I am long the USD against a basket of currencies