Sunday Weekly EDGE 7-29-12

It’s an important week for key economic data and central bank activity. Here are some good articles from over the weekend and below I will also get you updated on all the key events and earnings to look forward to this week.

There has been a lot of speculation about an investment in Twitter from Apple, and here is the latest story. Personally, many have speculated that Twitter would eventually go public but there seems to be so much interest from companies that want to get in the social media space, I doubt that it will ever happen.

As we have been talking about it during the latter part of last week on the daily webinars, expectations are mounting for something spectacular from the ECB on Thursday. The market better not be disappointed.

This was a really good article that @forexlive had a link to on their website over the weekend on tackling rising yields in the Eurozone.

www.alsosprachanalyst.com has a good post up with Goldman’s views of what the ECB “could do.”

Here is an article from Reuters about “Eurozone’s September Crunch.”

And of course, in honor of the Olympics in London (that has dominated my TV the couple days) here is a great tool to help you know what events are happening and when (for those of you in the U.S.A.).

Economic data this week will hot an heavy and if you thought last week was “volatile” this week could end up being one of the most active this summer. We start off the week with Spanish GDP tomorrow morning then later Monday evening NZD Business Confidence and AUD Building Approvals. Tuesday Morning we have CAD GDP, CB Consumer Confidence in the US and later that night China Manufacturing PMI (with expected reading above the expansionary line at 50.4). Wednesday Spanish and GBP Manufacturing PMI, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI and then the FOMC Statement. Later Wednesday night AUD Retail Sales and Trade Balance. Thursday CHF has Retail Sales, GBP Construction PMI, then the BOE has their rate decision, followed by the ECB’s and then the highly anticipated press conference from Mario Draghi. In the US we will have weekly Unemployment Claims. Friday GBP Services PMI followed by the ever popular (and now closely watched by the Fed) US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Then followed by the Non-Manufacturing PMI.

We are in full fledge earning’s season and I will not list every company reporting, but here are some highlights: Monday we have L and EMN. Tuesday we have TYC, AET, XRAY, ALL and COH. Wednesday is FSLR, HOG, MA and TWX. Thursday is AIG, CAH, DUK and CI. Friday wraps up the week with PG and NYX.

Lastly, most of you know that my team and I broadcast daily from 6AM ET through the NY stock market close. To access our live webinars daily (which are free, and our live in the market analysis has been for nearly 9 years now) just click on this link. Make sure you follow me on Twitter or Stocktwits @pipczar for my thoughts as the FX market opens this evening.

Here are some charts for you to look at that could impact the market next week:

I thought I would start off with the AUD/JPY which is probing a 78% retracement level and previous support. This is huge since the equity markets and risk assets typically follow the AUD/JPY’s lead. (e-mini futures are the blue line chart)

AUD/USD challenging channel resistance.

USD index daily which is probing a pretty strong daily trend line.

EUR/USD descending wedge (bullish reversal pattern if above 1.2400)

Gold has some upside on the weekly, but it is hard to get “too bearish the USD” while gold is in this wedge.

Frankly, copper looks very heavy in comparison to equities (look below)

ES’s really probing some key resistance here and looks bullish up to 1400.

 

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About Blake Morrow

Blake Morrow is the Chief Currency Strategist for Wizetrade. Blake has over 15 years of trading experience and has been a co- owner of a Dallas based brokerage firm and LiquidTrader Technologies. Currently, Blake does analysis daily for thousands on individual traders, also has appeared as a regular analyst on WizetradeTV, Traders Television and MBT Vision. Blake has also managed 6 figure trading accounts and is a seasoned individual investor in equities and FOREX.