Sunday Weekly EDGE 8-19-12

A fairly slow start to the week in the FX market at the moment with most pairs opening close to their closing level on Friday. So, let’s get started with a few articles I have read over the weekend…

First off, German Chancellor Merkel came off holiday last week, and after making a stop in Canada the end of last week, this is what she faces now via Bloomberg. In addition to this story, make sure you mark down the 24th of August, when Greece’s PM Samaras meets German’s Merkel to negotiate bailout terms.

Hey…by the way…are you paying attention to “Hay?” The FT says we should be.

FOMC Meeting minutes are this week, but lets be frank….we are all waiting on the Jackson Hole symposium. More from the WSJ. Many listeners of my daily broadcast already know my stance on the Fed and current expectations. If you want the link to the daily webinars it is found below.

I am not sure about you, but if you look at the price action of copper (chart below) and then take comments from the CEO of Caterpillar, one has to wonder about the health of the global economy.

On the calendar this week we start off with Monday, Monetary Policy Minutes from AUD, and Inflation Expectations from NZD. Tuesday in GBP we have Public Sector Net Borrowing, Wednesday CAD Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales and later that afternoon is the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday early in the Eurozone we have PMI readings from EZ, and France and Germany specifically. Also GBP CBI Realized Sales, US Weekly Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales and later that evening the RBA governor will be testifying. Friday ends the week with GBP GDP and then Durable Goods Orders in the US.

We are closing in on the end of earnings season, but here are some highlights for this week: Monday we have LOW and URBN. Tuesday we have DELL, INTU, BBY and MDT. Wednesday is HPQ, AEO and CHS. Thursday is BIG, ADSK and CRM.

Lastly, most of you know that my team and I broadcast daily from 7AM ET through the NY stock market close. To access our live webinars daily (which are free, and our live in the market analysis has been for nearly 10 years now) just click on this NEW link. (If you have signed up in the past, this is a new link as of last week which requires you to re-register with Citrix)

Here are some charts to kick off the week for you:

Check out the USD boxed in between the up-sloping trend line and key resistance. Breakout here is looming, imo.

AUD/JPY STILL rejecting at the daily 61.8% Fib Level on the dailies. Interesting….

Inverted H&S completed from July 15th? Damn close I’d say.

Transports. Shouldn’t they be at highs with the rest of the indices?

Copper. Same analysis as DJT (just way weaker)

As AAPL Challenges the 127% extension near 678, I am pretty confident the RSI is going to diverge on the weekly (hint, folks will be selling into this rally)

If you missed my latest on the $AUDUSD from Friday, MAKE SURE YOU CLICK HERE.

You can follow me on Twitter or Stocktwits @pipczar

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About Blake Morrow

Blake Morrow is the Chief Currency Strategist for Wizetrade. Blake has over 15 years of trading experience and has been a co- owner of a Dallas based brokerage firm and LiquidTrader Technologies. Currently, Blake does analysis daily for thousands on individual traders, also has appeared as a regular analyst on WizetradeTV, Traders Television and MBT Vision. Blake has also managed 6 figure trading accounts and is a seasoned individual investor in equities and FOREX.