First of all, Happy Mother’s Day to all the mom’s out there. Without you, none of this would be possible.
I am going to make this quick since we have some Mother’s Day festivities around the Morrow house today. So here are a couple quick links and some USD charts in particular you have to watch since the USD is hitting key levels on many pairs.
G7 communiqué has been released, and it looks like Japanese officials have convinced the world they are applying the right monetary policy and not purposely weakening the JPY, so look for continued JPY weakness, or at least for it to be sold on short covering rallies.
The Telegraph also has an article over the weekend talking about the possibility of USD strength.
Australian Treasurer Swan also reiterates that the strong AUD will give an “unprecedented whack” to tax revenue and make it difficult to return to surplus.
Some of the key events this week will be Monday Retail Sales in the US and New Zealand. Tuesday we get German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Wednesday we will get the BOE Inflation report and also the PPI in the US. Thursday we will have CPI, Building Permits, Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed in the US. Friday Canada will have CPI and we will get Consumer Sentiment in the US. Next Saturday Fed Chairman Bernanke will have the opening remarks at Bard College.
Lastly, most of you know that my team and I broadcast daily from 7AM ET through the NY stock market close. To access our live webinars daily (which are free, and our live in the market analysis has been for nearly 10 years now) just click on this link. Also, for those of you who trade during the European hours, join @casaro3 from 2:30-4:30 AM daily for the “London Calling” webinar. Just use the same link!
Here are some charts and notes on what I am seeing currently (currency pair edition this week):
Remember the “Trap Door” trade from last week? The symmetrical trend line support comes in around .9920
EUR/USD major supports at 1.2950 and trend line support at 1.2850. The multiple rejections at 1.3230′s puts a possible triple top in play in the coming weeks.
GBP/USD is very self explanatory. We are on channel support and a break below puts sub 1.5000 back into view.
NZD/USD closed below trend line support but closed on the 200 day SMA at the .8280. It will be an interesting open for the Kiwi.
USD/CHF break out of the triangle has two possible targets. You can click the image above to take a closer look.
You can see we are trading at a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1998 drop to 2011′s lows. The 101.50-103.00 levels should be some major resistance for bulls this week.
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